Don't fall for funky cost "math"

Opponents of the Hillsborough County transportation referendum have been quoted several times recently on what THEY ESTIMATE the sales surtax will cost them personally. The most recent "estimate" we have seen is $700 per year. This is an outrageous number. How did they come up with it? Well, our best guess is that they took the total amount of revenue expected to be generated each year (about $180 million) and divided it by the total number of households in Hillsborough County (about 454,000). This number still comes up far short of their estimate (less than $400) but that's just the beginning of the trouble with this calculation.

Can you see the problem with their math yet? First of all, not only residents pay sales taxes. Between 15-20% of sales taxes in Hillsborough are paid by non-residents. More importantly, their calculation assumes that everyone in the County spends the same amount of money -- regardless of if you're a family of 1 or 5! This is even more ridiculous given that sales tax in Florida does not apply to food or medicine. So how can we estimate the amount it would cost an average family in Hillsborough County? Luckily for us, this has already been done, and fact-checked! If only our job was always this easy... 

The Hillsborough County MPO estimates - using IRS tax tables that track the amount of sales tax paid by families of different sizes and incomes levels in each state - that a family of average size earning the average income in Hillsborough County would pay about $12 per month ($144 per year). Our friends at Politifact did an excellent job of breaking down the calculation already. An individual making an average income would pay an additional $85 per year or $7 per month.

So using this independently validated method, how realistic is this $700 per year estimate? According to the IRS tax tables, even a family of more than 7 making over $200,000 per year would pay LESS THAN HALF the amount estimated by opponents.

Don't let bogus numbers and funky math scare you into thinking this referendum will bankrupt you, because the facts say it won't.

Heroically Yours,

Mobility Mike and Commuter Carly

Check the FACTS:
http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i1040sca.pdf
http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2010/jun/18/hillsborough-area-rapid-transit-hart/brochure-estimates-financial-impact-hillsborough-t/