Opponents of the Hillsborough County transportation referendum have been quoted several times recently on what THEY ESTIMATE the sales surtax will cost them personally. The most recent "estimate" we have seen is $700 per year. This is an outrageous number. How did they come up with it? Well, our best guess is that they took the total amount of revenue expected to be generated each year (about $180 million) and divided it by the total number of households in Hillsborough County (about 454,000). This number still comes up far short of their estimate (less than $400) but that's just the beginning of the trouble with this calculation.
Can you see the problem with their math yet? First of all, not only residents pay sales taxes. Between 15-20% of sales taxes in Hillsborough are paid by non-residents. More importantly, their calculation assumes that everyone in the County spends the same amount of money -- regardless of if you're a family of 1 or 5! This is even more ridiculous given that sales tax in Florida does not apply to food or medicine. So how can we estimate the amount it would cost an average family in Hillsborough County? Luckily for us, this has already been done, and fact-checked! If only our job was always this easy...
The Hillsborough County MPO estimates - using IRS tax tables that track the amount of sales tax paid by families of different sizes and incomes levels in each state - that a family of average size earning the average income in Hillsborough County would pay about $12 per month ($144 per year). Our friends at Politifact did an excellent job of breaking down the calculation already. An individual making an average income would pay an additional $85 per year or $7 per month.
So using this independently validated method, how realistic is this $700 per year estimate? According to the IRS tax tables, even a family of more than 7 making over $200,000 per year would pay LESS THAN HALF the amount estimated by opponents.
Don't let bogus numbers and funky math scare you into thinking this referendum will bankrupt you, because the facts say it won't.
Heroically Yours,
Mobility Mike and Commuter Carly
Check the FACTS:
http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i1040sca.pdf
http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2010/jun/18/hillsborough-area-rapid-transit-hart/brochure-estimates-financial-impact-hillsborough-t/
Friday, October 22, 2010
More of the same...
Brian Blair began circulating a press release this week that made many bold claims about Hillsborough's countywide transportation plan--most of them without any factual evidence or grounding in reality. These are all claims we've heard before, but lets run through them again to be sure:
When it comes to light rail, it's the same old arguments: not enough people ride it, it won't reduce congestion, it's failed everywhere, and so on. We've heard it all before, but one thing hasn't changed: the FACTS! We've already shown how high-quality transit limits the number of cars on the road and reduces the amount residents choose to drive and last time we checked, systems that consistently blow ridership projections out of the water aren't typically referred to as failures.
The illusion that all transportation should pay for itself has come back again as well, and the assertion remains absurd. If Mr. Blair had done his homework, he would know that even highways are more heavily subsidized than transit. So why is Blair complaining that transit will (gasp!) receive subsidies? At least bus and rail recoup some money with rider fares. Perhaps he would like to make ALL roads toll-roads?
What about the economy? Every dollar we spend brings $4-$6 in private investment. The tax will attract billions of dollars in investment into our economy, contrary to Blair's claim that the tax will hurt the economy.
We did see one new claim here, that somehow finding a funding source for our transportation needs would cause tax hikes on property and gas. This is by far the most far-out claim we have heard yet, given that approving the referendum should prevent these increases, not cause them.
While we've enjoyed the opportunity to review our earlier rulings, we hope that residents aren't confused by this persistent misinformation.
Heroically Yours,
Mobility Mike and Commuter Carly
When it comes to light rail, it's the same old arguments: not enough people ride it, it won't reduce congestion, it's failed everywhere, and so on. We've heard it all before, but one thing hasn't changed: the FACTS! We've already shown how high-quality transit limits the number of cars on the road and reduces the amount residents choose to drive and last time we checked, systems that consistently blow ridership projections out of the water aren't typically referred to as failures.
The illusion that all transportation should pay for itself has come back again as well, and the assertion remains absurd. If Mr. Blair had done his homework, he would know that even highways are more heavily subsidized than transit. So why is Blair complaining that transit will (gasp!) receive subsidies? At least bus and rail recoup some money with rider fares. Perhaps he would like to make ALL roads toll-roads?
What about the economy? Every dollar we spend brings $4-$6 in private investment. The tax will attract billions of dollars in investment into our economy, contrary to Blair's claim that the tax will hurt the economy.
We did see one new claim here, that somehow finding a funding source for our transportation needs would cause tax hikes on property and gas. This is by far the most far-out claim we have heard yet, given that approving the referendum should prevent these increases, not cause them.
While we've enjoyed the opportunity to review our earlier rulings, we hope that residents aren't confused by this persistent misinformation.
Heroically Yours,
Mobility Mike and Commuter Carly
Don't let the critics fool you: if you're worried about gas and property taxes you should be FOR the referendum, not against it
The newest rumor circulating about Countywide Transportation is that by approving the referendum, we will see higher gas and property taxes.
This bogus claim is scaring residents into believing that the referendum will set off a cascade of tax increases that no one can afford. The threat of a 5 cent increase in the gas tax has materialized seemingly out of thin air, and those touting this claim offer no facts to back it up. The only rationalization provided for why the referendum would lead to gas and property tax increases is that the sales surtax would not cover the cost of the full project. This is simply not true.
Let's take a look at the facts. HART, the MPO, and the Transportation Taskforce spent years devising a plan based on the projected revenue from the 1% sales surtax, and it will cover the FULL plan. This includes the more than $700 million in road projects, doubling the bus fleet to expand frequency and service area, and the full 46 miles of light rail.
Here are some more facts about the relationship between the referendum and taxes. If we DON'T vote FOR countywide transportation, you can be sure that Hillsborough County residents will have to come up with funding for building and expanding roads through another revenue source. How can we be sure? Because without the revenue that would be generated by the referendum, Hillsborough County will have a $15 billion shortfall in funding for road projects. Either taxes will have to be raised - property or other taxes - or services will have to be cut significantly to address this shortfall sooner or later, and the longer we wait to address our transportation needs, the more expensive it will be to do so. In an economic downturn, materials, labor, and land are much cheaper, making road expansion and other projects less expensive.
One final point about taxes. In the more urban areas of Hillsborough, it is MORE EXPENSIVE to widen roads than it is to invest in buses or light rail. To meet future traffic demand, I-275 from USF to Downtown Tampa would need to be widened to 14 or 16 lanes (sounds like a nightmare to us, we're lucky superheroes can fly) at a cost of more than $2.2 billion. To build light rail along that same corridor would be less than half the cost ($900 million) to move the same or more people. Why? Because it is CHEAPER to invest in light rail than highways once you exceed 8 lanes.
What does all this mean? It means that investing in a comprehensive transportation system is the FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE choice. It also means that if you are worried about seeing higher gas or property taxes, you should be FOR the referendum, not against it.
Heroically Yours,
Mobility Mike and Commuter Carly
Check the FACTS:
http://www.gohart.org/whytransit/financial_plan.pdf
http://www.hillsboroughcounty.org/transtaskforce/
http://www.mpo2035.org/faqs.html
This bogus claim is scaring residents into believing that the referendum will set off a cascade of tax increases that no one can afford. The threat of a 5 cent increase in the gas tax has materialized seemingly out of thin air, and those touting this claim offer no facts to back it up. The only rationalization provided for why the referendum would lead to gas and property tax increases is that the sales surtax would not cover the cost of the full project. This is simply not true.
Let's take a look at the facts. HART, the MPO, and the Transportation Taskforce spent years devising a plan based on the projected revenue from the 1% sales surtax, and it will cover the FULL plan. This includes the more than $700 million in road projects, doubling the bus fleet to expand frequency and service area, and the full 46 miles of light rail.
Here are some more facts about the relationship between the referendum and taxes. If we DON'T vote FOR countywide transportation, you can be sure that Hillsborough County residents will have to come up with funding for building and expanding roads through another revenue source. How can we be sure? Because without the revenue that would be generated by the referendum, Hillsborough County will have a $15 billion shortfall in funding for road projects. Either taxes will have to be raised - property or other taxes - or services will have to be cut significantly to address this shortfall sooner or later, and the longer we wait to address our transportation needs, the more expensive it will be to do so. In an economic downturn, materials, labor, and land are much cheaper, making road expansion and other projects less expensive.
One final point about taxes. In the more urban areas of Hillsborough, it is MORE EXPENSIVE to widen roads than it is to invest in buses or light rail. To meet future traffic demand, I-275 from USF to Downtown Tampa would need to be widened to 14 or 16 lanes (sounds like a nightmare to us, we're lucky superheroes can fly) at a cost of more than $2.2 billion. To build light rail along that same corridor would be less than half the cost ($900 million) to move the same or more people. Why? Because it is CHEAPER to invest in light rail than highways once you exceed 8 lanes.
What does all this mean? It means that investing in a comprehensive transportation system is the FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE choice. It also means that if you are worried about seeing higher gas or property taxes, you should be FOR the referendum, not against it.
Heroically Yours,
Mobility Mike and Commuter Carly
Check the FACTS:
http://www.gohart.org/whytransit/financial_plan.pdf
http://www.hillsboroughcounty.org/transtaskforce/
http://www.mpo2035.org/faqs.html
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