Myth 5: Light rail has been a failure everywhere. The estimated costs always prove too low, and the ridership projections are always too high

When communities throughout the country started re-investing in light rail in the 1980’s, some ridership and cost projections were badly off, because planners had no recent experience on which to base these projections. With time and experience, estimates for light rail ridership and costs have gotten more accurate, with ridership often underestimated, and costs and sometimes construction time overestimated. Light rail critics ignore the progress that has been made and continue citing outdated numbers. So does light rail fail “everywhere?” Let’s look at some examples (data from Weyrich and Lind, 2001 unless otherwise cited):

• In Phoenix, AZ, when their light rail opened in 2001, it was projected to attract 26,000 riders per day, but the number was closer to 33,000 per day (Litman, 2010).
• Salt Lake City's TRAX light rail system began service December 4, 1999 – a year ahead of schedule and under budget. Projected weekday ridership was 14,000 people. Actual weekday ridership early in 2000 ranged from 18,956 to 19,742. Saturday ridership was even higher, reaching 25,621 four months after opening.
• In Denver, their central corridor, which opened in 1994, was above expected ridership projections. When they extended the original light rail line another 8.7 miles it exceeded ridership expectations by almost 30 percent in the first week.
• In the first two years after Portland, Oregon's Westside MAX Light Rail line opened in 1998, average daily ridership was above 71,000, a level not expected until 2005. Prior to the line’s opening, the forecasts for 2005 were criticized as too optimistic.
• In St. Louis, 17,000 daily riders were projected by the end of the first year. One year later, weekday ridership was 44,414 and average Saturday and Sunday ridership was over 50,500. Both the media and some public officials had criticized the initial projections as being “ludicrously high.”
• The first 11 miles of Dallas's 20-light rail system opened on time and within budget. Initial ridership was projected at 15,000; actual ridership in the first month averaged more than 18,000. In 2001, DART was averaging weekday ridership of 42,000.
• The Charlotte LYNX system, which opened in November of 2007, was projected to carry 9,100 riders per day. Actual daily ridership less than two years later was 14,500 (Cambridge Systematics, 2010).

So, light rail failing everywhere? Not by a long shot. Recent systems have been very successful, blowing ridership projections out of the water.

Check the facts:
Cambridge Systematics, “Economic Impact of HART: Existing and Future Expansions,” Final Report, July 2010
Litman, T., Evaluating rail transit criticism, Victoria Transport Policy Institute, 2010
Weyrich and Lind, Twelve Anti-Transit Myths: A Conservative Critique The Free Congress Foundation, 2001

Heroically yours,

Mobility Mike and Commuter Carly